As SOOMLA is the 1st company to focus on monetization measurement for mobile apps it only make sense that we will take the lead on predicting some of the trends that will control app monetization in 2018. These predictions are based on our data as well as on observing the market trends in 2017. However, predicting the future is a tricky business so take these with a grain of salt. Here we go – counting 7.
1 – Let the ad whale hunting begin
In 2017 SOOMLA exposed the existence of ad whales – a group of users who contribute over 80% of the app ad revenue and can sometimes make $100 for the app publisher by watching and interacting with ads. In 2018 more and more app companies will invest resources into understanding who the ad whales are, how they behave, what are the best channels to bring more of them and how to adapt the app for this segment. Basically, the same practices app companies applied for the top spenders will be used for the users who generate the big advertising dollars.
2 – Publishers will seek tighter control on ‘rich’ interstitial ad content
2017 introduced a lot of innovation around ad-formats that can be delivered through interstitial containers: Playable ads, interactive videos, dynamic end cards and what not. Publishers who integrated interstitial ads expecting a short ad break in the app flow ended up with an experience they didn’t sign up for. The fact that a longer ad experience with an invisible ‘x’ button has a toll on retention intuitive but SOOMLA also validated that with data and will publish a report about it in Q1/18. In 2017 some publishers started pushing back on these formats and we expect more publishers will want to control these ad experiences in 2018.
3 – More publishers that are also advertisers
In 2016 there were very few ad driven app companies that could afford paid UA campaigns. In 2017 this number grew and in 2018 it will grow even more. Following the footsteps of SOOMLA, more providers are offering tools that give visibility into Ad LTV. In turn, more publishers are aware of where they stand and what CPI levels they can bid. See the post about the steady increase of CPIs and how they are here to stay.
4 – Header bidding will start but adoption will be slower than expected
Header bidding was discussed in many conferences in 2017. The idea is simple and highly beneficial to publishers and some ad providers have launched earlier versions of this model. In 2018, some publishers will test out this model but it will not go into mass adoption just yet. There are too many loose ends at the moment and no sufficient coverage from ad providers. Furthermore, it appears that the some of the leading players are happy to receive bids from others but no so happy to provide the bid out. FB, Google, Mopub, Appodeal and Ironsource are each trying to become the company who will run the auction so they refuse to give a bid out. This means each that each one of them insists on exclusivity which will be a big turnoff for publishers.
5 – Better control over ad experience and creative
Publishers needs ways to control the ad experience as part of the overall app experience. In 2017, SOOMLA and SafeDK started providing solutions in this area. We expect more solutions will become available, more publishers will start using these and ad providers will also start adding more functionality to control ad experience.
6 – More apps will advertise competitors in 2018
Advertising competitors was a big no-no for many app publishers who were concerned their users will churn away and move to the competitor app. In 2018 there are already tools that allows monitoring the eCPM and churn caused by specific advertiser. This means app publishers will be able to apply a data driven approach to this question that was decided with gut instincts until recently. Based on the data we have seen – more publishers will feel comfortable with advertising competitors as a result.
7 – Ads will surpass IAP for mobile game monetization
2017 ended up with a tie between the different monetization models for games. Some studies claimed IAP revenue was still bigger while others showed ad revenue as the winning monetization model. In 2018, there will be no question any more and the clear monetization winner will be ad revenue. Part of the reason for that is the emergence of data tools to measure ad monetization. This makes more publishers feel comfortable with building games that relay heavily on ad revenue.
That’s it – 7 predictions for the new year. Write them down and check if we were right in 12 months.