This is the 2nd part in a series of 6 posts. Here is a summary post explaining all the different calculators.
The naive calculator explained in the previous post requires you to know how long users will stay in your game. If you only have limited retention data, this calculator implements a simple CLV formula and takes a few seconds to use.
- 2nd day, 7 day, 14 day, 30 day retention – ratios of how many users still use the app in day x out of the users that started
- ARPDAU (first 30 days) – the average revenue per user
- Expected lifespan in user days – this is the sum of all the retention of all users in a cohort (users x days)
- Estimated CLV/LTV presented as a number and in Gauge
The model assumes that the retention function is a power function of the type y=a*x^b where “x” is the day and “a” and “b” are coefficients of the model. This method first estimates the retention for the 180 day. It then uses weighted sum between 2nd day, 7 day, 14 day, 30 day and 180 day with the following weights: 2.5, 7, 12, 57.5, 100 (applied in the same order). The weighted sum based CLV formula is much simpler than doing an integral on the power function and the accuracy impact is not that big. Once the user lifetime is calculated, the CLV is easy to figure out by multiplying the lifetime with the ARPDAU.
- Almost as accurate as much more complex models
- The prediction overweights the day-30 retention
- The model assumes a constent ARPDAU
More options for CLV formula
Here is a more advanced method to calculate the CLV by modeling user lifetime with a spreadsheet
You can also model out LTV in one segment based on data from other segments
If you want to also analyze and predict the LTV for your advertising revenue – now there is a solution. Check out SOOMLA Traceback – Ad LTV as a Service.